Will Moore’s Law Apply to Solar Energy?

Those of us fanboys who work at our day jobs in the computer biz are well aware of the concept of Moore’s Law which is that as time goes on more sophisticated hardware becomes cheaper to manufacture at an incremental rate. Well it seems that now some folks who develop photovoltaics (PV for short) think that they may see their technology reach a turning point by 2015 which is only seven years away:

Photovoltaic Moore’s Law Will Make Solar Competitive by 2015

“In recent years, global PV production has been increasing at a rate of 50 percent per year, so that accumulated global capacity doubles about every 18 months. The PV Moore’s law states that with every doubling of capacity, PV costs come down by 20 percent. In 2004, installing PV cost about $7 per watt, compared to $1/W for wind, which at that time was beginning to stand on its own feet commercially, Last, year, as recently noted in this blog, average global solar costs had come down to between $4 and $5 per watt, right in line with the PV Moore’s law. Extrapolate those gains out six or seven years, and PV costs will be below $2/W, making photovolatics competitive with 2004 wind.”

Found via futurepundit.com.